Its just nobody was paying attention to that. A place like Bell Labs benefits from remaining in contact with the needs of commerce, as it provides a check on lart pour lart pathologies, a fertile source of problems, and can feed back the benefits of mass production/experience curves. We may want things now, we may want them fast, But God knows best, our future is cast. Once the initial shock of the situation wore off, you'd start getting ready for work. In a Governing . Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). January 19, 2020. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. Included in this guide: 1 Seagate Backup Plus Ul. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. The motivation to take something into the real world, which necessarily requires attacking the reverse salients, may be part of why corporate & academic research are both necessary; too little of either creates a bottleneck. In a recent poll [8], thirty-five out of forty-two people engaged in this sort of research gave estimates between ten and one hundred years. In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. "If you want to go big in the business world, you need to have the right product at the right time.". This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. Suppose the home robotic growth were concentrated in a single private company which exploded into the billions of annual revenue and took away the market share of all the others, forcing them to go bankrupt or merge or shrink. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. and err In the 1980s, famed technologist Stewart Brand visited the equally-famed MIT Media Lab (perhaps the truest spiritual descendant of the MIT AI Lab) & Nicholas Negroponte, publishing a 1988 book, The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T. Someone could have built the Rift in mid-to-late 2007 for a few thousand dollars, and they could have built it in mid-2008 for about $673.5$500.02008. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Its important to be the last person to discover something. There were people playing around with controlling brain cells with light going back to the 1940s. The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. The Wanderer And His Shadow, Human, All Too Human., Nathan Myhrvolds patent troll company Intellectual Ventures is also featured in Malcolm Gladwells essay on multiple invention, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?; IVs business model is to spew out patents for speculations that other people will then actually invent, who can then be extorted for license fees when they make the inventions work in the real world & produce value. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. Be still. We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they work, and sometimes they change the world. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg was not the first and only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg; many people made social networking fortunes before himmaybe Orkut didnt make its Google inventor a fortune, but you can bet that MySpaces DeWolfe and Anderson did well. He saw a need for government support of appropriate institutions, especially research institutes in universities. Sensors, displays batteries! We know that a given animal with a mane is a horse, and that one with horns is a bull. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. Jr.: An Investigation of Wellbore Storage and Skin Effect in Unsteady Liquid Flow: I. Analytical Treatment,, Horner, D.R. (All of which was doubtless why Page & Brin tried & failed to sell Google to AltaVista & Excite & Yahoo early on, and negotiated a possible sale with Yahoo as late as 2002 which they ultimately rejected.) So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. So you dont know the timing well enough to reliably launch. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. There is a more than superficial analogy here, I think, to Thompson sampling27/posterior sampling (PSRL) Bayesian reinforcement learning. The Wanderer And His Shadow, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?, paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix, Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?, An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place, Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. Why would anyone think that the future of smartphones would be won by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine? Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. Such targeted research efforts can have disproprotionate payoffs and lead to sudden breakthroughs as the enemys frontline collapses. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. Youve seen the curves Gordon Moore discovered. (The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion). I immediately check on people; I barely even talk to. Michie went on to point out that in a previous case, Charles Babbage, his work was foredoomed by it being an unripe time due to hardware limitations and represented a complete waste of time & money17. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. Batteries is a big one.. Once, Freds luck at the gaming tables of Las Vegas helped to save the company from financial disaster. At Rice U.s Baker Inst., we find the Shell Center for Sustainability. . Below are some guiding questions . In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. Everything of importance has been said before by somebody who did not discover it. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. In what I would call, in a nod to Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, definitely-maybe optimism. previous similar startups failed). We managed to get a taste of the experience with something called the Power GloveSony actually brought out a little near-eye display called Virtual Boy; not very good, but they gave it their best shot. reflection-in-action. In the current time people can 't imagine their life without technology. Though not venture backed, Southwest Airlines was cofounded in 1967 by Herb Kelleher and of course has gone on to become a very successful business. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? VCs will literally escape through the bathroom to avoid talking to us., Stripe: Banks & online payment processors like PayPal are heavily-regulated inefficient monopolies which really suck; well make friends with some banks and run a payment processor which doesnt suck. As this happens, the way of life is eased, for example, the capability of communicating with people in far locations within a short time. What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! The research manager had to be active in defining goals, in marshaling means and resources, and in assessing success or failure. Total page count over 20. Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. One thing that. it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. As Bill Gates says, I can give you fifty examples of ideas theyve had where, if you take just one of them, youd have a startup company right there. Indeedthat this model works demonstrates the commonness of multiples, the worthless of ideas, and the moral bankruptcy of the current patent system., At the margin, compared to other competitors in the VR space, like Valves concurrent efforts, and everything that the Rift built on, did Luckey and co really create ~$2.95$2.302014b of new value? But to come very near to a true theory, and to grasp its precise application, are two very different things, as the history of science teaches us. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. This was oft-cited as an example of how technoweenies failed to understand that people didnt really want videophones at allwho wants to put on makeup before making a call?, people offered as an explanation, in all seriousnessbut really, it looks like the videophones back then simply werent good enough. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). but less When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effects of sports, sports education, technological uses, and their effects on sports education. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. Advances in technology have brought us online banking, smart cars, smart TVs, lightning fast computers, and the latest buzz: virtual reality. If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. As a research manager with training and experience in pharmaceutical chemistry, a lively interest in medicine, and rapport with the medical community, Hrlein was well positioned to survey the field where chemistry and medicine joined battle against disease. And then suddenly a catalyst took hold and the adoption skyrocketed. Even now, after weve been building them for 100 years, its very difficult to understand just why a bicycle worksits even difficult to formulate it as a mathematical problem. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. 2. Youve invented taxis & buses. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) Another time, we had to ask our employees to hold their paychecks while we waited for the next wave of financingFred dumped his entire inheritance into the company and was full speed ahead without concern for his personal finances. After that, an explosion of new models presented on log-log coordinates appeared in the mushrooming well-test literature. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. Dont ask Fisher, hes hardly going to say, oh yeah, all the money was completely wasted, we were trying to do it too soon; our bad. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? Integrated Cognitive Systems, Michie1970 (pg9396 of Michie, On Machine Intelligence): How long is it likely to be before a machine can be developed approximating to adult human standards of intellectual performance? For example, researchers have shown that time of day explains about 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks. Tariq, Syed M., and Ramey, H.J. By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. 2). For his attack on one of the most important reverse salientsthe chemotherapy of bacterial infectionsHrlein called upon the medical researcher Domagk and the chemists Mietzsch and Klarer. This is especially difficult as . Information and Communication Technology covering the topics of: The current state of ICT technologies (i.e., Web 2.0, 3.0, convergent technologies, social, mobile, and assistive media) Online systems, functions, and platforms. The right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. So many models could be easily derived when the governing equations were transformed into Laplace space. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. The problem was that some tests never exhibited the correct straight line for analysis, although it was always possible to find an apparent oneone that would lead, in many cases, to completely erroneous results. In the current time people can't imagine their life without technology. In this sense, Hrlein might be said to have thoughtas Thomas Hughes has shown that Edison didin terms of reverse salients and critical problems. This suggests that ARPA-E PDs are more likely to select proposals that were highly-rated by at least one reviewer, but they are not deterred by the presence of a low rating. All major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky. We ultimately chose to abandon our word choice, but the principle remains today: You have to be partly delusional to start a company given the prospects of success and the need to keep pushing forward in the wake of the constant stream of doubters. If you concentrate you might be able to identify where some of the late reflections come from. That was inconceivable before because it would have been just so expensive to do that calculation. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. In2012, I watched impressed as my aunt used the iPhone application FaceTime to video chat with her daughter half a continent away. When a participant crosses the finish line, the RFID tag is read by an RFID reader which transmits the tag's ID to the timing software. However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . Of course Google was always going to be a huge success because of PageRank and also (post hoc theorizing) Z, Y, & Z, except for the minor problem that Google was merely one of many search engines, great perhaps11 but not profitable, and didnt hit upon a profitable business modelmuch less a unicorn-worth modeluntil 4 years later when it copied Overtures advertising auction, which was its salvation (In The Plex); in the mean time, Google had to sign potentially fatal deals or risking burning through the last of its capital when minor technical glitches derailed vital deals. The possibility of broadcasting radio waves across the Atlantic was convincingly excluded by theoretical analysis. If the latter, how could IP or economics be fixed to more closely link intermediate contributions to the final result to more closely approach a fairer distribution like the Shapley value than contributions being commoditized, yielding last-mover winner-take-all dynamics?. End of preview. The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. In this regard, it is amusing to note the exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019.). Look after a pet. Stewart Butterfield wanted to make a MMORPG game which failed, and all he could salvage out of it was the photo-sharing part, which became Flickr; he still really wanted to make a MMORPG, so after Flickr, he founded a company to make the MMORPG Glitch which also failed, so after trying to shut down his company and being told not to by his investors, he salvaged the chat part from it, which became Slack. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. 9, 4 (1969)] There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations. The origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy; eg. Translation, Katsuki Sekida, Two Zen Classics: The Gateless Gate and The Blue Cliff Records, 2005., Which as a side note is wrong; compiled predictions actually indicate that AI researcher forecasts, while varying anywhere from a decade to centuries, typically cluster around 20 years in the future regardless of researcher age. (TML). The researchers used qualitative research approach in this study with phenomenological research design. Since then, Mach continued this work and was instrumental in Yukos achievements to increase production by 20% per year for several consecutive years without drilling new wells. o Activity Report: Timing your Technology. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. COWEN: Two last questions. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. We do not know what a unicorn is like. o Activity Report: Technology and Past ( interviews with elders) o Nature's Longest Threads by Janaki. At his trial, Fred testified that as president of the Enterprise board and with supporting letters from his sisters, he had authority to commit the board. One theme I notice in many systems is that they follow a multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. I once was shown some data acquired in a water-injection well that was abruptly shut in from a flow rate of 30,000 BOPD. In their book Edisons Electric Light: Biography of an Invention, Robert Friedel, Paul Israel, and Bernard Finn list 23 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison. So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the fait accompli. If your instructor demands a word count outside of this range, meet your instructor's requirements. Its not the consequence that makes a problem important, it is that you have a reasonable attack. (One wonders if a 20-year forecast might be driven by anthropics: in an exponentially-growing field, most researchers will be present in the final generation, and so a priori one could predict accurately that it will be 20 years to AI. Start small. Soon after this experience, I decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? Academy of Engineering in 2003. Can I conceive of a team better equipped to address the market needs that might walk through our doors tomorrow? Three decades later, the book is highly dated, and the descriptions are of mostly historical interest for the development of various technologies (particularly in the 1990s). While I was at Stanford, my student colleagues included Syed Tariq and Hugo Sandal,4 two other Ramey students who wrote the first papers using the Stehfest algorithm5,6 to numerically transform analytical models for well testing from Laplace space into real space. At the same time, our entire lifestyle and that of the developing world depends on energy. Maybe somebody found a new gene. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. 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